Russia Emerges Victorious in the Drone War

Ukraine's emphasis on drone warfare reflects the country's underlying strengths and weaknesses. In terms on manpower, firepower, and funding, the Ukrainians simply cannot hope to compete with Russia. This has made cheap and potentially plentiful drones a particularly attractive option for Ukrainian military planners as they look to compensate for Russia's far greater resources while also reducing their country’s dependence on military support from Western partners.

At the start of the full-scale invasion, Ukraine's vibrant tech sector represented an important asset that the authorities in Kyiv were quick to mobilize. This tech prowess helped cement the country's strategic focus on drones, which could be designed and produced domestically to compensate for a lack of more conventional weapons.

Since 2022, the number of Ukrainian companies developing drones has skyrocketed, while annual output has risen to millions of units. This has allowed Ukraine to establish a "drone wall" along the front lines of the conflict, making any buildup of enemy forces extremely challenging. Over the past year, around three-quarters of all Russian casualties have been as a result of Ukrainian drones.

At sea, Ukraine has used drones to sink multiple warships and break the Russian navy's Black Sea blockade, forcing Putin to withdraw the bulk of his remaining fleet from Russian-occupied Crimea. Ukraine's growing drone capabilities have also made it possible to bring Putin's invasion home to Russia with an escalating campaign of deep strikes on military and industrial targets across the Russian Federation.